Clade Age Estimates & Speculation

[Webmaster]

Below are from Iain McDonald's clade age estimation methodology on The Big Tree:

Code: Select all

R1b-DF105		149 AD		390 AD		592 AD
R1b-A18726
R1b-A259		185 AD		434 AD		661 AD
R1b-BY198		228 AD		502 AD		796 AD
R1b-A260		253 AD		506 AD		741 AD

http://www.ytree.net/BlockInfo.php?blockID=564
http://www.ytree.net/BlockInfo.php?blockID=567
http://www.ytree.net/BlockInfo.php?blockID=2343
http://www.ytree.net/BlockInfo.php?blockID=568

The following dates are from Dr. Daniel P. McCarthy's Chronological Synchronisation Of The Irish Annals:

1. Eochaid Muigmedón died 362 AD.
2. Brión died 378 AD.
3. Dau Tenga Uma died 500 AD.

The following genealogies are from the Book Of Ballymote:

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Eochaid Muigmedón (R1b-DF105)
Brión
Dau Galach (R1b-A18726)				Conall Airisin / Bir (=> R1b-BY35731 Uí Máille)
Eógan Sreb (R1b-A259)				Erníne (=> ? R1b-BY198 & R1b-BY184425)
Muiredach Máel					Cruitine (Uí nErca Cein => ? [? brothers] Muirchertach [? mac Erca] & Eochaid Tírmchárna [Uí Briúin Aí])
Fergus (R1b-A260)
Dau Tenga Uma [Uí Briúin Seóla]			Fergna [Uí Briúin Bréifne]

The men in the left column are the main line of the Uí Briúin up until the split into the Uí Briúin Seóla and Uí Briúin Bréifne septs. The men in the right column are corresponding brothers with known descendants or speculated ("?") descendants. The "=>" symbol indicates the mutation likely occurred in one of the named individual's descendants. The assignment of a specific clade to an individual is pure speculation at this point based on the clade age estimates and the time frame of the genealogies.

[ChrisMcLain132906]

It looks like David was spot-on calling A5902 for the Cenel Brenainn. We could roughly start to estimate ages of all these nodes and significant SNPs. Not by very scientific means since we really don't know how often an SNP occurs, or what makes it significant or not. But we can say that the average participant thus far who has done BigY700 and whose data is fully shown in the cladogram, has between 15 and 20 variants from A5902 block or *Brenainn*. This person who first had the mutation probably lived in the early 7th century. In the 1350 years (which by the way, Yfull also has a 1350ybp TMRCA for A5902) between this person living and roughly all of us being born, an average of 17.5 variants developed among us, we are given an average of 77.14 years per variant.

If we factor this into the cladogram, we could most certainly say that all the larger SNPs post-BY82279 most likely occurred prior to the 10th century, a time when actual surnamed Clans were developing.

[Webmaster]

Thanks, Chris!

Nice analysis of your own too.